Thanks Tim. I have a bad habit of overwhelming not only the people around me but also myself with an endless stream of half baked ideas, it's hard to tell whether to take my ramblings seriously or not. I can certainly take the time to clean my ideas up, cite references for my claims etc, I know my wall of text writing style can be tl;dr, it's just in my current mood I can barely type fast enough to keep up with my thoughts...
I would like to think that you are right, that this cyborg-esque vision of the future will not eventuate too rapidly and I can spend the rest of my life comfortable with the same tools I grew up with and understand, but everything changes, and its interesting to step back and get some perspective on just how quickly change occurs.
When I was born about 29 years ago, the internet was a twinkle in Arpanet's eye. In the 80's, even though C64's and Z80 based computers were "mainstream" and many large corporations at that time used dumb terminals connected to a mainframe it was still very niche to possess ones own computer at home.
When I was in high school, I was one of the very few kids who actually had a "real" computer with a basic 1200 baud modem - most other kids had consoles (if anything), and an occasional businessman or government worker used a work-supplied PC or laptop for accounting and document writing. Now every kid from millionaires down to families living in shared government housing own at least one computer and a reasonable internet connection.
In a similar time frame, mobile phones went from being massive bricks used only by millionaires and company executives via satellites to slim devices where the actual "phone" bits fit on the tip of your finger (the rest is screen, buttons and form for people to grasp), connecting via a vast array of radio towers disguised as trees and light posts dotting every prominent hill in this vast country of ours (and indeed the whole world) which 15 or 20 years ago simply didn't exist - even children can text each other with silly messages. Masses of infrastructure have sprung into existence in an incredibly short time period.
15 years ago, if I was riding my bike down to the beach and a friend wanted to catch up to listen to some tunes on the stereo or read some comics, he could call me at home (we still had a rotary dial on our phone even then), but if I wasn't home tough luck, he'll have to try later, or see me the next day, or try to guess that I probably went down the beach and go for a ride himself. Nowadays if I don't answer my phone for some reason, and the person tries again 3 minutes later and again 3 minute later, I think gee it must be urgent but no - they're just bored and wanting to chat about stuff. Or if I don't answer 15 minutes later I get a text "What's up? U ignorin me:)" - the technology provides instant communication and now people demand it of each other, it's considered rude to return a call the next day, as if there's some incessant burning need to fill some big empty space in the world with gossip about insignificant minutiae.
Such changes to the world made by personal computing advances have been very rapid indeed. Some studies have shown that without "norms" and "constants" people can become unstable as there seems to be nothing solid to anchor their perspective of reality upon. This is where the pull between tradition and innovation (the generation gap syndrome) seems to come from. It seems in my generation, change itself has become the norm. Strange how the human mind adapts to situations so far removed from our tribal root-munching and animal-clubbing.
Now the first "internet generation" (people who never saw a world without internet) has hit university age, there is little doubt in my mind that we're going to start seeing a whole lot of new ideas from the kids who grew up with the technology and therefore know it more intimately (from early childhood) than us older folk. Google and texting is just a part of their world environment, whereas for myself and other 30ish guys it was something we kind of stumbled through as it appeared and made changes to our lives. To us it's something that was new to us and we found great and useful for things, for them they grew up with it and are probably full of ideas of what could work better, things that have bugged them since day one which they intend to improve upon.
Like some man said (I think it might have been Newton or some other greybeard) "that we can see so far today, it is only because we stand on the shoulders of giants. "
Would that it be the little bastards stop climbing up our backs, but they won't. Did we, when we were in their shoes? To me it's both alarming and exciting to think everything I know and thought I knew about the present and future of technology is very likely going to change much faster than I can keep up. Part of me wants to stay within my comfort zone, but another part of me really wants to see what comes next.
I think PC gaming will kind of stay around for the near future, but it's a dying beast, you can sort of tell by the kmart factor - they're only stocking a couple of bashed up looking "educational" games in the corner of the games aisle (old stock no one will buy) - soon PC's will be relegated back to a pure workstation which will soon lose its core processing abilities via cloud computing (aka back to the old mainframe style infrastructure but on a global scale).
Games will become more and more the domain of gaming machines but as internet infrastructure begins to allow live streaming of high def 3d graphics without noticeable lag these too will lose their processing abilities and become nodes on the cloud. This is not that far off, I give it 10, 15 years tops. Then, since both desktop and gaming console computers are mere nodes, it's more than likely they will merge into one and you can dock your node in the tv for gaming, or your desktop keyboard for work, and a variety of other uses I haven't thought of (swipe it at the checkout to buy shopping?).
I mean as comfortable as I am with my PC here on my desk, it's only because I am used to it. Its whirring fans are almost a solace to me on a subconscious level like the slight hiss on an old vinyl. The tangled cables inside, the intermittent hard drive failures and accumulation of dust are quaint little foibles I can tut and fuss over like granddad fussing over a broken spring in the gramophone or the difficulty of procuring Super-8 film these days.
It seems like complete science fiction, just like TV in the 1920's and home computing in the 1950's. But the resonant feedback loop between art and life has demonstrated its ability over the history of human culture to cascade into manifest reality.
It is true that the market dictates the adoption of new ideas. And the market often prefers to stick with the trusted and comfortable items it grew up with and knows well. So it's very likely we'll still see physical hardware computers right up until we die - as long as we still buy them someone will still make them.
The children of my generation are growing up constantly exposed to mobile phones and small handheld personal computers, they're in tune with integrated internet use and small scale gadgets such as in-car GPS's and mini mp3 players more so than PC's and consoles, and this will likely define the "safe" technology of their generation.
What about our grandchildren? In 12 - 15 years time (when I am in my 40's) my daughter will be having children of her own. By that time, cloud computing will probably be the norm, who knows what they'll be growing up with? I doubt by that time children will be sporting their own personal ocular implants but there's still another 10 to 30 years of my life after that point (assuming I don't die accidentally or succumb to a fatal illness in the interceding period).
But I for one would like to do away once and for all with the endless stream of gadgets - once we strip away all these extraneous things and the personal computer moulds into our lives seamlessly without the wires and boxes and fuss, I think our focus can shift from the technology to other issues, like life and the people around us.
Imagine for a second a world without TV screens, desktops, laptops, mobile phones, monitors, keyboards, mice, modems, routers, cables and so forth. Say goodbye to static-free cloths, tv stands, DVD cases, hifi units, large office desks, filing cabinets, hifi speakers, socket strips, wall warts, carry bags...
How much less waste there would be not having to mine, refine, transport, manufacture, package, store, sell and transport (again) all that stuff? People would still need furniture to sleep on, sit on, eat upon and relax with of course, but just about any surface would do for a simulated workstation / gaming / web browsing experience - you could customise your virtual environment precisely to your liking.
It would be like stepping back into the early 1800's in terms of home furnishing requirements with an invisible fabric of high tech communications technology flowing all throughout - in contrast to the bombastic in-your-face "Look at my stuff!" clutter of modern households.
I have a feeling this future will go one of two ways: Stranger and more excellent than I can possibly dream or revert back to tribal savagery following a wide scale global nuclear war between China and America.
I have to apologise for this post being so long. I swear I am not always this long winded! In any subject it's hard to define a fair and reasonable scope which doesn't leave out any important bits, and if I blew the scope out of expected proportions here it's only that this is a subject I am passionate about - the history and future of computing technology from a holistic perspective always gets me going - I hope it doesn't bother you guys too much! And I sure hope it's not wasted
